* Initially this post was started because of Sun’s layoffs (18%). Now Sun is no more, and so seems work for a large percentage of the Greek workforce.

Downsizing is to be expected in great numbers. At the scale that this seems it is going to happen, these will not really be informed layoffs, the criteria being simple: You have a high salary (for some definition of high) and your choices may include: retirement, layoff, substantial pay-cut (equals to morale / motivation downsizing) and/or transfer to another organization (in a take it or bye-bye offer).

The short term result of such a massive violent move will of course be proof of elimination of the so called “cost centers”. The mid and long term results will be far more different: The information flow within the organizations will be severely disrupted. There exists the organizational structure and then there exists the informal structure that gets built over time. The departure of a key person can be dealt with by an “unconscious” team auto-configuration. But what about more than one? While small teams communicate more effectively, small teams cannot be made smaller. Time is a limited resource and there is not enough to perform the required analysis before downsizing.

That is the price to be paid for not trying to be lean when you had the chance. And new “cost centers” will emerge.

Appendix: Chalk one up for math (or How even retirement disrupts information flow)

Steinmetz‘ most gratifying moment may have occurred after his retirement. An emergency brought him back to GE’s Schenectady plant to troubleshoot a malfunctioning generator. For days, the hobbled genius pored over drawings with paper and pencil in hand. Finally, he placed a chalk mark on the side of the generator, instructing the repairmen to cut through the casing and remove a number of turns from the stator. It worked.

When asked to submit an invoice, Steinmetz delivered a slip of paper with nothing on it but the surprisingly large figure of $10,000. The accountants, in shock, said they couldn’t process the paperwork without a more detailed breakdown. Steinmetz then forwarded another note on which was typed:

One chalk mark $1. Knowing where to put it $9,999.

A short time later, Steinmetz received his pay in full.

To those that believe that this was not because of disrupted information flow, but because of Steinmetz’ genius, I can only say that I know of cases where retired for decades engineers were called back for consulting due to lack of documentation. And today’s knowledge workers are not better at keeping it either.

(and sometimes open-source vendor lock-in)

Thanks to @nzaharioudakis (whom I had asked whether Debian stable is an adequate platform to run Zimbra on) I remembered the following quote from “Conquest in Cyberspace“:

“The seducer, for instance, could have an information system attractive enough to entice other individuals or institutions to interact with it by, for instance, exchanging information or being granted access. This exchange would be considered valuable; the value would be worth keeping. Over time, one side, typically the dominant system owner, would enjoy more discretion and influence over the relationship, with the other side becoming increasingly dependent. Sometimes the victim has cause to regret entering the relationship; sometimes all victim regrets is not receiving its fair share of the joint benefits. But if the “friendly” conquest is successful, the conqueror is clearly even better off.”

Even though the above is written in cyberwarfare (political) language, the point is very clear and the IBM executive’s phrase becomes well understood:

“Because you don’t want to get locked into an open system”

(One has to keep in mind that the phrase is taken somewhat out of context. Some 20 years ago when he spoke of “open systems” he meant OSI).

I do not want to get locked in any system.

→ “You ALWAYS pay“